Von daher ist es sehr interessant zu lesen. Für den Fall, dass diese Seiten mit der Zeit nicht mehr im Web zu finden sind habe ich hier diese Abschnitte zitiert.
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Am Ende des Annual Reports (2003) von AutoDesk standen ein
paar sehr bemerkenswerte Abschnitte über die Risikofaktoren des
geschäftlichen Umfelds. Diese lassen sich 1:1 auf andere Unternehmen (wie
z.B. SolidWorks) übertragen.
Von daher ist es sehr interessant zu lesen. Für den Fall, dass diese Seiten mit der Zeit nicht mehr im Web zu finden sind habe ich hier diese Abschnitte zitiert. |
Original: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/030428/adsk10-k.html (Annual Report (SEC form 10-K) vom 28.04.2003)
Risk Factors Which May Impact Future Operating Results
We operate in a rapidly changing environment that involves a number of risks, many of which are beyond our control. The following discussion highlights some of these risks and the possible impact of these factors on future results of operations. If any of the following risks actually occur, our business, financial condition or results of operations may be adversely impacted, causing the trading price of our common stock to decline.
General economic conditions may continue to reduce our net revenues and harm our business.
As our business has grown, we have become increasingly subject to the risks arising from adverse changes in domestic and global economic and political conditions, including the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the potential economic impact from current concerns about severe acute respiratory syndrome (“SARS”). Because of the continued slowdown in the U.S. and other countries’ economies, many customers are delaying or reducing technology purchases. If this slowdown continues, particularly in industries or countries that contribute a significant portion of our net revenues, it will likely continue to result in reductions in sales of our products, longer sales cycles, slower adoption of new technologies and increased price competition. In addition, weakness in the end-user market could continue to negatively affect the cash flow of our distributors and resellers who could, in turn, delay paying their obligations to us, which would increase our credit risk exposure. Any of these events would likely harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Because we derive a substantial portion of our net revenues from a limited number of products, if these products are not successful, our net revenues will be adversely affected.
We derive a substantial portion of our net revenues from sales of AutoCAD software, including products based on AutoCAD that serve specific vertical markets, upgrades to those products and products that are interoperable with AutoCAD. As such, any factor adversely affecting sales of these products, including product life cycle, market acceptance, product performance and reliability, reputation, price competition and the availability of third-party applications, would likely harm our operating results.
In the Discreet business, our customers’ buying patterns are heavily influenced by advertising and entertainment industry cycles, which has resulted in and may continue to have a negative impact on our operating results. In addition, Discreet’s systems products rely on workstations manufactured by Silicon Graphics and failure of Silicon Graphics to deliver products in a timely manner would likely result in an adverse effect upon our financial results for a given period.
Our operating results fluctuate within each quarter and from quarter to quarter making our future revenues and operating results difficult to predict.
Our quarterly operating results have fluctuated in the past and are likely to do so in the future. These fluctuations could cause our stock price to change significantly or experience declines. Some of the factors that could cause our operating results to fluctuate include the timing of the introduction of new products by us or our competitors, changes in marketing or operating expenses, changes in product pricing or product mix, platform changes, delays in product releases, distribution channel management, changes in sales compensation practices, the timing of large systems sales and general economic or political conditions, particularly in countries where we derive a significant portion of our net revenues.
We have also experienced fluctuations in operating results in interim periods in certain geographic regions due to seasonality or regional economic conditions. In particular, our operating results in Europe during the third quarter are usually impacted by a slow summer period, and the Asia Pacific operations typically experience seasonal slowing in the third and fourth quarters. Operating expenses may also increase in periods when major product releases occur.
Additionally, our operating expenses are based in part on our expectations for future revenues and are relatively fixed in the short term. Accordingly, any revenue shortfall below expectations could have an immediate and significant adverse effect on our profitability. Further, gross margins may be adversely affected if our sales of AutoCAD LT, upgrades and systems products, which historically have had lower margins, grow at a faster rate than sales of our higher-margin products.
Existing and increased competition may reduce our net revenues and profits.
The software industry has limited barriers to entry, and the availability of desktop computers with continually expanding performance at progressively lower prices contributes to the ease of market entry. The markets in which we compete are fairly mature and characterized by vigorous competition, both by entry of competitors with innovative technologies and by consolidation of companies with complementary products and technologies. In addition, some of our competitors have greater financial, technical, sales and marketing and other resources. Furthermore, a reduction in the number and availability of comparable third-party applications may adversely affect the sale of our products. Because of these and other factors, competitive conditions in the industry are likely to intensify in the future. Increased competition could result in continued price reductions, reduced net revenues and profit margins and loss of market share, any of which would likely harm our business.
We believe that our future results depend largely upon our ability to offer products that compete favorably with respect to reliability, performance, ease of use, range of useful features, continuing product enhancements, reputation and price.
We rely on third party technologies and if we are unable to use or integrate these technologies, our product and service development may be delayed.
We rely on certain software that we license from third parties, including software that is integrated with internally developed software and used in our products to perform key functions. An example of this type of software is the ACIS geometric solid modeler we license from Spatial. These third-party software licenses may not continue to be available on commercially reasonable terms, and the software may not be appropriately supported, maintained or enhanced by the licensors. The loss of licenses to, or inability to support, maintain and enhance any such software could result in increased costs, or in delays or reductions in product shipments until equivalent software could be developed, identified, licensed and integrated, which would likely harm our business.
In addition, for certain of our products and services, we rely on third party hardware and services. Financial difficulties or even failure of these third parties may impact our ability to deliver such on-line collaboration applications and, as a result, may adversely impact our business.
Disruptions with licensing relationships, independent developers and third party developers could adversely impact our business.
Independent firms and contractors perform some of our product development activities, while other technologies are licensed from third parties. Licenses may restrict use of such technology in ways that negatively affect our business. We generally either own or license the software developed by third parties.
Because talented development personnel are in high demand, independent developers, including those who currently develop products for us, may not be able or willing to provide development support to us in the future. Similarly, we may not be able to obtain and renew license agreements on favorable terms, if at all, and any failure to do so could harm our business.
Our business strategy has historically depended in part on our relationships with third-party developers, who provide products that expand the functionality of our design software. Some developers may elect to support other products or may experience disruption in product development and delivery cycles or financial pressure
during periods of economic downturn. In particular markets, this disruption would likely negatively impact these third-party developers and end users, which could harm our business.
Net revenues or earnings shortfalls or the volatility of the market generally may cause the market price of our stock to decline, which could harm our business.
The market price for our common stock has experienced significant fluctuations and may continue to fluctuate significantly. The market price for our common stock may be affected by a number of factors, including the following: net revenues or earnings shortfalls and changes in estimates or recommendations by securities analysts; the announcement of new products or product enhancements by us or our competitors; quarterly variations in our or our competitors’ results of operations; developments in our industry; and general market conditions and other factors, including factors unrelated to our operating performance or the operating performance of our competitors.
In addition, stock prices for many companies in the technology sector have experienced wide fluctuations that have often been unrelated to the operating performance of such companies. Historically, after extended periods of volatility in the market price of a company’s securities, a company becomes more susceptible to securities class action litigation. This type of litigation is often expensive and diverts management’s attention and resources.
Our efforts to develop and introduce new products and service offerings expose us to risks such as limited customer acceptance, costs related to product defects and large expenditures that may not result in additional net revenues.
Rapid technological change as well as changes in customer requirements and preferences characterize the software industry. We are devoting significant resources to the development of technologies and service offerings to address demands in the marketplace for increased connectivity and use of digital data created by computer-aided design software. As a result, we are transitioning to new business models, requiring a considerable investment of technical and financial resources. Such investments may not result in sufficient revenue generation to justify their costs, or competitors may introduce new products and services that will achieve acceptance among our current customers, adversely affecting our competitive position.
Additionally, the software products we offer are complex, and despite extensive testing and quality control, may contain errors or defects. These defects or errors could result in corrective releases to our software products, damage to our reputation, loss of revenues, an increase in product returns or lack of market acceptance of our products, any of which would likely harm our business.
Our business could suffer as a result of risks associated with strategic acquisitions and investments.
We periodically acquire or invest in businesses, software products and technologies that are complementary to our business through strategic alliances, equity investments and the like. For example, in April 2002 we acquired Revit and in September 2002 we acquired CAiCE. The risks associated with such acquisitions or investments include, among others, the difficulty of assimilating the operations and personnel of the companies, the failure to realize anticipated synergies and the diversion of management’s time and attention. In addition, such investments and acquisitions may involve significant transaction-related costs. We may not be successful in overcoming such risks, and such investments and acquisitions may negatively impact our business. In addition, such investments and acquisitions have in the past and may in the future contribute to potential fluctuations in quarterly results of operations. The fluctuations could arise from merger-related costs and charges associated with eliminating redundant expenses or write-offs of impaired assets recorded in connection with acquisitions. These costs or charges could negatively impact results of operations for a given period or cause lack of a consistent increase quarter to quarter in our operating results.
Our international operations expose us to significant regulatory, intellectual property, collections, exchange fluctuations and other risks, which could adversely impact our future net revenues.
We anticipate that international operations will continue to account for a significant portion of our consolidated net revenues. Risks inherent in our international operations include the following: unexpected changes in regulatory practices and tariffs, difficulties in staffing and managing foreign operations, longer collection cycles for accounts receivable, potential changes in tax laws and laws regarding the management of data, greater difficulty in protecting intellectual property and the impact of fluctuating exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies in markets where we do business.
Our international results may also continue to be impacted by general economic and political conditions in these foreign markets or in specific large foreign markets. In particular, war in the Persian Gulf or the potential economic impact from concerns about SARS could disrupt trade and market relationships in a way that could harm our business. These and other factors may adversely impact our future international operations and consequently our business as a whole.
Our risk management strategy uses derivative financial instruments in the form of foreign currency forward and option contracts for the purpose of hedging foreign currency market exposures, which exist as a part of our ongoing business operations.
If we do not maintain our relationship with the members of our distribution channel, our ability to generate net revenues will be adversely affected.
We sell our software products both directly to customers and through a network of distributors and resellers. Our ability to effectively distribute our products depends in part upon the financial and business condition of our reseller network. Computer software dealers and distributors are typically not highly capitalized and have previously experienced difficulties during times of economic contraction, such as current worldwide economic conditions, and may do so in the future. In addition, the changing distribution models resulting from the Internet, from increased focus on direct sales to major accounts or from two-tiered distribution may impact our reseller network in the future. No single customer, distributor or reseller accounted for more than 10 percent of our consolidated net revenues in fiscal 2003, 2002 or 2001. However, we rely significantly upon major distributors and resellers in both the U.S. and international regions and the loss of or a significant reduction in business or failure to achieve anticipated levels of sell-through with any one of our major international distributors or large resellers could harm our business. In particular, if one or more of such resellers should be unable to meet their obligations with respect to accounts payable to us, we could be forced to write off such accounts, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations in a given period.
Product returns could exceed our estimates and harm our net revenues.
With the exception of contracts with some distributors, our sales contracts do not contain specific product-return privileges. However, we permit our distributors and resellers to return products in certain instances. For example, we generally allow our distributors and resellers to return older versions of products which have been superceded by new product releases. We anticipate that product returns will continue to be impacted by product update cycles, new product releases such as AutoCAD 2004 and software quality.
We establish reserves for stock balancing and product rotation. These reserves are based on historical experience, estimated channel inventory levels and the timing of new product introductions and other factors. While we maintain strict measures to monitor these reserves, actual product returns may differ from our reserve estimates, and such differences could harm our business.
If we are not able to adequately protect our proprietary rights, our business could be harmed.
We rely on a combination of patents, copyright and trademark laws, trade secrets, confidentiality procedures and contractual provisions to protect our proprietary rights. Despite such efforts to protect our proprietary rights, unauthorized parties from time to time have copied aspects of our software products or have obtained and used information that we regard as proprietary. Policing unauthorized use of our software products is time-consuming and costly. While we have recovered some revenues resulting from the unauthorized use of our software products, we are unable to measure the extent to which piracy of our software products exists, and software piracy can be expected to be a persistent problem. Furthermore, our means of protecting our proprietary rights may not be adequate, and our competitors may independently develop similar technology.
We may face intellectual property infringement claims that could be costly to defend and result in our loss of significant rights.
We expect that software product developers will be increasingly subject to infringement claims as the number of products and competitors in our industry segments grows and as the functionality of products in different industry segments overlaps. Infringement, invalidity claims or misappropriation claims may be asserted against us, and any such assertions could harm our business. Litigation often becomes more likely in times of economic downturn. Any such claims, whether with or without merit, could be time-consuming to defend, result in costly litigation and diversion of resources, cause product shipment delays, or require us to enter into royalty or licensing agreements. In addition, such royalty or license agreements, if required, may not be available on acceptable terms, if at all, which would likely harm our business.
The loss of key personnel or the inability to attract and retain additional personnel could harm our business.
Our continued growth and success depends significantly on the continued service of highly skilled employees and independent developers. Our ability to attract and retain key personnel is dependent on a number of factors, including our continued ability to grant stock incentive awards. Changes in the accounting rules for stock options, which are granted to most of our employees and which have been a significant factor in attracting and retaining key technical and management experts, could have a material adverse effect on our business. The loss of key personnel or inability to recruit new employees or independent developers would negatively impact our business. In addition, we may experience increased compensation costs to attract and retain skilled personnel.
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